Orioles vs Blue Jays Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday September 12, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on September 12, 2025, this American League East matchup carries significant weight for the Blue Jays, who sit at 84-62, firmly in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Orioles, with a record of 69-77, have struggled throughout the season. The Blue Jays recently showcased their dominance with a commanding 6-0 victory in their last game, while the Orioles managed a narrow 3-2 win, reflecting their inconsistent performance.

Toronto’s Chris Bassitt takes the mound, boasting an 11-8 record and a solid 3.97 ERA this year. Although Bassitt ranks as the 99th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting average performance, he has shown flashes of brilliance recently. In his last outing on September 6, he completed five innings without allowing a run, striking out three. His projections for tonight suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs—typical for his season.

On the other side, Baltimore counters with Trevor Rogers, who has been impressive with an 8-2 record and an excellent 1.51 ERA. Rogers ranks as the 65th best pitcher in MLB, indicating above-average performance, yet advanced metrics reveal a potential regression. In his last start, he allowed 2 earned runs in five innings, while striking out six. Projections indicate he might struggle to maintain his current form, projecting to allow 2.7 earned runs and 5.4 hits.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank as the 2nd best in MLB, bolstered by a potent batting average of .301, while the Orioles sit at 21st with a batting average of .222. With Toronto’s lineup currently performing at an elite level, they are positioned well to capitalize on the Orioles’ pitching struggles. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, signaling expectations of a tight contest, but the Blue Jays’ strong offense and solid pitching could tip the scales in their favor.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Trevor Rogers’s four-seamer percentage has spiked by 8.1% from last season to this one (31.7% to 39.8%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Gunnar Henderson’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 92-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 78.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect better numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Chris Bassitt’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.7-mph fall off from last year’s 92.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates George Springer’s true offensive ability to be a .360, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .042 gap between that figure and his actual .402 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 134 games (+18.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 122 games (+22.58 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)