Bets and Betting Tips for Twins vs Royals – September 06, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 6, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League Central matchup. The Royals currently sit at 72-69, having an average season, while the Twins are struggling at 62-79. Kansas City is looking to build on the momentum from their previous game, where they edged out the Twins 5-4 in a tightly contested battle.

The pitching matchup features Royals’ Stephen Kolek, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4-5 record and a solid 3.99 ERA. Despite being ranked 182nd among MLB starters, Kolek is projected to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs. However, his strikeout rate is concerning, as he averages just 3.9 strikeouts per game.

On the other side, the Twins will send out Joe Ryan, who has had a stellar season with a 13-7 record and an impressive 3.08 ERA, ranking him 14th among MLB starters. Ryan is a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 28.3% strikeout rate, and projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. However, he faces a Royals offense that has the fewest strikeouts in MLB, which could neutralize his biggest strength.

Offensively, the Royals rank 24th in MLB, with a particularly weak showing in home runs, sitting 25th overall. In contrast, the Twins have managed to rank 18th in overall offense, supported by their 14th rank in home runs. The projections suggest that this game will be competitive, with a Game Total set at 8.0 runs. Kansas City’s current moneyline is +105, indicating that betting markets view this matchup as closely contested, giving the team a slight edge to pull off a victory despite their recent struggles.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Joe Ryan’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (62.5 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball batters like Byron Buxton tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Stephen Kolek’s fastball spin rate of 2190 rpm is in the 25th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Over the past week, Mike Yastrzemski’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Kansas City Royals (19.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 65 games at home (+25.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 65 away games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-260)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)