Guardians vs Rays Betting Line and Odds – September 05, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on September 5, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams find themselves in a similar position, hovering around .500 with records of 71-69 and 69-70, respectively. This matchup is critical for both squads as they look to gain momentum in an increasingly competitive American League landscape. In their last game, the Rays bested the Guardians 4-2, showcasing their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

The starting pitchers present an intriguing contrast. Griffin Jax, who has struggled this season with a 1-7 record and an ERA of 4.98, is set to pitch for the Rays. Despite his lack of starting experience—having made 63 appearances out of the bullpen—Jax’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as evidenced by his 2.14 xFIP, indicating he could perform better moving forward. However, his projections for this outing are underwhelming, with averages of 1.0 innings pitched and 0.4 earned runs allowed.

On the other hand, Gavin Williams, projected to start for the Guardians, has had a solid season with a 9-5 record and an impressive ERA of 3.26. Williams’s recent performance was notable, as he pitched well in his last start on August 30, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts, and 4 hits allowed. However, his high walk rate of 12.1% could play into the Rays’ favor, as they rank 5th in the league for least walks taken.

Offensively, the Rays boast a respectable 14th ranking in MLB, while the Guardians languish at 30th, indicating a stark mismatch. The projections suggest the Rays are favored in this contest, and with their offensive prowess, they may well capitalize on the Guardians’ struggles at the plate. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reinforcing the expectation of a tightly contested battle.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starter, Gavin Williams has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.2 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Angel Martinez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Ian Seymour has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 11.34 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.74 — a 2.60 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Junior Caminero has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 99.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Tampa Bay Rays bats have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-worst in the league.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 120 games (+9.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-190)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)