Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Athletics vs Giants – 7/31/24

Oakland Athletics

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Oakland Athletics at Oracle Park on July 31, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series. Both teams have been struggling this season, with the Giants sitting at 53-55 and the Athletics at 44-64. The Giants are having an average season, while the Athletics are enduring a terrible one.

San Francisco is projected to start left-hander Kyle Harrison, while Oakland will counter with southpaw JP Sears. Harrison has shown promise this season and will look to capitalize against an Athletics offense that ranks 27th in team batting average. However, the A’s do have some pop, ranking 4th in home runs, which could pose a challenge for Harrison.

On the other side, Sears will face a Giants lineup that has been middling in terms of batting average, ranking 15th, but lacks power and speed, ranking 23rd in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. This should give Sears some confidence, although he’ll need to be cautious of Jorge Soler, who has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .478 with an OPS of 1.375.

The Athletics’ Seth Brown has also been on fire, boasting a .563 batting average and a 1.588 OPS over his last six games. Despite their overall struggles, Oakland’s ability to hit the long ball could keep them in the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests that the Giants have a slight edge in this matchup. While both teams have their weaknesses, San Francisco’s more balanced offense and home-field advantage at Oracle Park could be the difference-maker.

Bettors should keep an eye on the pitching duel between Harrison and Sears, as well as the power-hitting potential of both lineups. Given the Giants’ average season and the Athletics’ dismal one, San Francisco appears to be the safer bet.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  Given the 2.05 discrepancy between Ross Stripling’s 6.02 ERA and his 3.97 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to perform better in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Shea Langeliers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 100.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Seth Brown, Brent Rooker, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all SPs, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2098 rpm ranks in the 14th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  When it comes to his home runs, Tyler Fitzgerald has been lucky since the start of last season. His 39.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.5.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Miguel Andujar has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.75 Units / 53% ROI)