Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Cardinals – 8/27/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals

On August 27, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium in what is the third game of their current series. The Cardinals, with a record of 65-68, are looking to improve on an average season, while the Pirates, at 58-75, continue to struggle mightily. In their last matchup, the Cardinals lost to the Pirates with a score of 8-3, which highlights the ongoing difficulties they have faced.

Projected starters for this matchup include Sonny Gray for St. Louis and Carmen Mlodzinski for Pittsburgh. Gray, ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts a 12-6 record this season and has shown signs of being unlucky given his 4.33 ERA and a significantly better 2.99 xFIP. He’s projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.1 earned runs, with a solid strikeout rate of 6.3 batters. Conversely, Mlodzinski has struggled, with a 3-7 record and a 3.89 ERA, but projects to pitch only 2.5 innings, making him a potential liability against a Cardinals lineup that, while ranked 21st in overall offensive capability, still has moments of brilliance.

Despite the Cardinals’ recent offensive challenges, they have a high implied team total of 4.28 runs for this game, suggesting that oddsmakers believe they could produce. Meanwhile, the Pirates, with the worst offense in MLB, have an implied team total of just 3.22 runs, underscoring their struggles. Given the disparity in pitcher performance, the Cardinals hold a strong advantage, making them a worthy favorite in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jared Triolo is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Sonny Gray projects for 16.3 outs in today’s outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Lars Nootbaar is assured to hold the advantage against every reliever all game since none of the available options for the Pittsburgh Pirates share his handedness.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 92 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 94 games (+21.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)