Bets and Betting Tips for Astros vs Orioles – August 23, 2025

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Houston Astros on August 23, 2025, they find themselves in the midst of a challenging season, currently sitting at 59-69. The Astros, on the other hand, are enjoying a solid campaign with a record of 71-58. Notably, in their last matchup, the Orioles dropped a close game to the Astros, which adds pressure to this third game of the series.

The Orioles are projected to start Dean Kremer, who has been an average performer this season, ranking 117th among MLB starting pitchers. Kremer’s ERA stands at a commendable 3.97, but he struggles with allowing hits, projecting to give up 6.0 on average today. His low walk rate of 6.1 BB% may not be advantageous against a disciplined Astros offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest walks.

Cristian Javier, taking the mound for the Astros, has had a rocky year with an ERA of 3.38, but his 4.77 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck. Javier’s projection of 4.9 innings pitched today is concerning, especially given the Orioles’ offensive struggles—they rank 21st in the league. Still, they do have some power, ranking 12th in home runs, which could be pivotal against Javier.

The projections suggest a close game, with the Orioles having an implied team total of 4.71 runs and the Astros at 4.29. Given the current odds, this matchup offers an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially considering the Orioles’ potential to outperform expectations against a pitcher who may be more vulnerable than his ERA indicates.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cristian Javier – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cristian Javier will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.8) may lead us to conclude that Jesus Sanchez has had bad variance on his side this year with his 14.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Today, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.2% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Dean Kremer allowed a monstrous 5 earned runs in his last start.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jeremiah Jackson is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Baltimore Orioles offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+13.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 129 games (+17.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI)