Team Stats and Prediction for Rockies vs Pirates Matchup 8/23/25

Colorado Rockies

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on August 23, 2025, it’s hard to ignore the significance of the last game’s outcome, where the Pirates dominated with a 9-0 shutout, leaving the Rockies reeling. The Pirates, although struggling with a 55-74 record this season, are looking to ride that momentum, while the Rockies find themselves at an even more dismal 37-92.

On the mound, the Pirates will send Michael Burrows to the hill, who despite ranking as the 124th best starting pitcher in MLB, showed promise in his last outing by allowing just one earned run over five innings. His projected performance indicates he might struggle with hits and walks, but he could very well capitalize on a struggling Rockies lineup. Conversely, Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, one of the lesser-performing pitchers this season, holds a 3-12 record with an ERA of 5.16. The projections suggest he may have been unlucky this season, but the fact remains that his below-average strikeout and high earned run projections do not bode well for him.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 30th in MLB, with a batting average of .236 and a league-worst total in home runs. However, their best hitter has recently shown signs of life, boasting a .333 average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Rockies, while slightly better, also rank poorly in most offensive metrics, leaving both teams in dire need of improvement.

With a Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, the Pirates are favored at -175 on the moneyline, which indicates a strong belief that they can build off their recent success. With their recent win still fresh, the Pirates will look to make a push against a Rockies team that has had little success this season.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kyle Freeland has utilized his curveball 5.6% more often this season (24.5%) than he did last year (18.9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.217) may lead us to conclude that Hunter Goodman has experienced some positive variance this year with his .277 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Hunter Goodman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Out of all SPs, Mike Burrows’s fastball velocity of 94.7 mph ranks in the 75th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Joey Bart has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be best to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+20.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 117 games (+9.77 Units / 7% ROI)
• Warming Bernabel – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1700)
  Warming Bernabel has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)