Royals vs Tigers Match Preview and Winning Probability – Saturday August 23, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Detroit Tigers

On August 23, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park in the second game of their series. The Tigers are enjoying a strong season with a record of 77-53, while the Royals sit at 66-63, marking an average year for them. The stakes are somewhat tempered as both teams are not in contention for their division, but the Tigers still have a solid chance at a Wild Card spot.

In their previous matchup, the Tigers emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive prowess. Detroit’s lineup ranks 10th in the league, with a particularly strong power display, sitting 9th in home runs. In contrast, Kansas City’s offense is struggling at 24th overall, particularly in power, which could be a crucial factor in this matchup.

Chris Paddack is projected to take the mound for the Tigers, coming off a season where his ERA stands at 5.10, indicating some struggles. However, his xFIP of 4.60 suggests he might be due for a turnaround. Paddack’s low strikeout rate (17.2 K%) could be a concern against a Royals offense that has the second-fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially allowing them to make more contact.

On the other side, Michael Wacha will start for the Royals. Although his ERA of 3.34 reflects strong performance, his xFIP of 4.42 indicates he may not sustain this level of success. Wacha’s ability to induce strikeouts could be beneficial against a Tigers lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts, giving him a slight edge.

The betting line currently favors the Tigers with a moneyline of -125, reflecting a close contest. With a projected total of 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive as both teams look to solidify their standing heading into the latter part of the season.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Michael Wacha has utilized his change-up 6.1% less often this season (26.2%) than he did last year (32.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Chris Paddack’s 2242-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 23rd percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Riley Greene has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 99-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 5th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games at home (+15.83 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 125 games (+23.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-590)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+9.55 Units / 106% ROI)