Score Prediction and Insights for Cardinals vs Rays Match – August 22, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on August 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race for relevance this season. The Rays, currently sitting at 61-67, are struggling to find their footing, while the Cardinals hold a slightly better record at 64-65, marking them as an average team this year. This matchup is crucial for both sides, as they look to gain momentum in the latter part of the season.

In their previous encounter, the Rays fell short, and with Adrian Houser slated to take the mound, they will need a strong performance. Houser has had an intriguing season, boasting a solid ERA of 2.67 despite being ranked as the 133rd best starting pitcher in MLB. His ability to induce ground balls (48% GB rate) could play to his advantage against a Cardinals offense that ranks among the lowest in power, with just 122 home runs this season, placing them 5th least in MLB.

On the other side, Miles Mikolas is projected to start for the Cardinals. Although he has pitched 24 games this season, his performance has not been stellar, reflected in his 4.99 ERA and a less favorable Power Ranking. The projections indicate he may struggle against the Rays, who are known for their discipline at the plate, ranking 6th least in walks drawn.

With the Rays boasting the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, they have a solid chance to capitalize on late-game situations, especially given their average implied team total of 4.76 runs. As the two teams square off, the Rays will look to leverage their strengths against a Cardinals lineup that has been inconsistent. This matchup promises to be closely contested, reflecting the tight standings of both teams.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Miles Mikolas’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (92.1 mph) below where it was last year (93.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Adrian Houser.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• St. Louis’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #10 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Adrian Houser is an extreme groundball pitcher (48% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in George M. Steinbrenner Field — the #6 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Bob Seymour – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Robert Seymour has strong power (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas has a pitch-to-contact profile (11th percentile K%) — great news for Seymour.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Josh Lowe has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 108 games (+12.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 away games (+7.96 Units / 10% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)