Texas Rangers
Kansas City Royals
(-120/+100)-130
As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Texas Rangers on August 18, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of their respective standings, with the Royals at 63-61 and the Rangers at 62-63. This matchup kicks off a new series, and recent performances suggest a hard-fought contest ahead. The Royals emerged victorious in their last game with a 6-2 win, while the Rangers bested their opponent 10-4, showcasing their offensive capabilities.
Pitching will play a crucial role in this encounter. The Royals are slated to start Michael Wacha, who has been solid this season with a 3.35 ERA and a Power Rankings position of #64 among MLB starters, indicating he is performing above average. In his last outing on August 12, Wacha delivered a commendable performance, going 6 innings while surrendering just 2 earned runs. However, the projections suggest that he may face challenges this time around, particularly with a concerning average projection of 5.1 hits allowed and 1.6 walks per game.
On the other hand, the Rangers will counter with Jack Leiter, whose season has been rocky as indicated by his poor ranking among pitchers. Despite a decent ERA of 3.94, Leiter’s underlying metrics suggest he may be due for trouble, with a 4.96 xFIP. Although he pitched well his last time out, his routine often leads to walks—a significant concern as the Royals rank #1 in the league for fewest walks taken.
Offensively, both teams have struggled in various aspects this season. The Royals rank 24th overall in MLB offense, while the Rangers sit at 27th. However, while Kansas City’s lack of power could hinder them against Leiter’s high-flyball tendencies, they boast the 10th best ranking for stolen bases, which could serve as a crucial advantage in this tight contest.
With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Royals presenting a favorable moneyline of -130, there is an opportunity for Kansas City to take advantage of their slight upper hand, particularly against a pitcher like Leiter, who has shown vulnerability against patient hitters. This series opener promises an intriguing clash as both teams look to gain momentum amid an average season.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jack Leiter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Out of all starting pitchers, Jack Leiter’s fastball velocity of 96.7 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Wyatt Langford’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 91-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 84.5-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Wacha to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Maikel Garcia’s true offensive skill to be a .320, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .038 disparity between that mark and his actual .358 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 112 games (+22.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Evan Carter – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)Evan Carter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)