Read the Twins vs Yankees Betting Guide – August 13, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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New York Yankees

On August 13, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their series. The Yankees currently sit with a record of 64-56, showcasing an above-average season, while the Twins are struggling at 56-63, marking a below-average performance. The Yankees’ offense ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, bolstered by their league-leading power with 190 home runs. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense ranks 15th overall, but they have a disappointing 21st in batting average.

In their last outing, the Yankees continued their strong play, and they will look to build momentum behind their projected starter, Cam Schlitter. Although Schlitter has been below average this season, ranking 134th among pitchers, he has managed to maintain an ERA of 4.38. However, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for a downturn, as both his xERA and FIP indicate he has been fortunate thus far. Schlitter’s high walk rate could be a concern, but he faces a Twins offense that ranks 6th in fewest walks drawn, potentially mitigating his control issues.

On the opposing mound, Joe Ryan represents a stark contrast for the Twins. Ryan, ranked 14th among MLB starters, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.79. Although his projections show he might allow 2.8 earned runs today, his elite strikeout rate of 6.4 batters per game could keep the Yankees in check.

Betting markets give the Yankees a slight edge with a moneyline of -135, indicating a close matchup. With their powerful offense and the potential vulnerabilities of Schlitter, the Yankees may very well be poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage in this crucial game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Ryan Jeffers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Cameron Schlittler has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 61.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Today, Trent Grisham is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+170/-225)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 73% ROI)