Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers
(+100/-120)-200
On August 10, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Los Angeles Angels at Comerica Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers come into the game with a strong record of 67-51, positioning them well within the playoff conversation. Meanwhile, the Angels, struggling at 56-61, are looking to find some momentum after a disappointing season. In their most recent game, the Tigers managed a solid win, continuing their good form as they look to secure a series victory.
The pitching matchup features Casey Mize for the Tigers and Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels. Mize has had a solid season, boasting a 10-4 record and a respectable 3.50 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 4.10 xFIP indicates he has been a touch lucky. Mize’s average projections suggest he may struggle with hits and walks today, which could be a concern against an Angels lineup that ranks 5th in home runs.
Kochanowicz, on the other hand, has had a rough season with a 3-9 record and a troubling 5.85 ERA. Despite his poor performance, projections show he may outperform his numbers today, allowing 3.1 earned runs on average. He faces a Tigers offense ranked 9th overall, which could exploit his low strikeout ability, especially considering Detroit’s high strikeout rate at 5th in MLB.
With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Tigers favored heavily with a moneyline of -205, this matchup could tilt in Detroit’s favor if Mize can hold the Angels’ powerful offense at bay. The projection systems favor the Tigers, suggesting their strong pitching and offensive capabilities may give them the edge needed to secure another victory in this series.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Among all SPs, Jack Kochanowicz’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 80th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Logan O’Hoppe’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 92.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 79.9-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Casey Mize – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Casey Mize to throw 85 pitches in this game (12th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Extreme groundball bats like Javier Baez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jahmai Jones, Dillon Dingler).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+17.33 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 58 games (+17.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Zach McKinstry has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.70 Units / 75% ROI)