Mets vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, August 09, 2025

New York Mets

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets on August 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League race, with the Brewers holding a strong record of 71-44 and the Mets at a respectable 63-53. The Brewers have been enjoying a solid season, while the Mets are having an above-average year, although they currently trail the Brewers in the standings.

In their last matchup, the Brewers edged out the Mets with a close 3-2 victory, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to this game. The Brewers are projected to start Tobias Myers, who has struggled to find his footing this season, sporting a 1-1 record and a 4.30 ERA in five starts. However, the projections indicate that Myers has been somewhat lucky this year, and he is expected to allow around 2.9 earned runs over an average of 4.8 innings pitched, which could prove detrimental against a competitive lineup.

On the other side, Frankie Montas takes the mound for the Mets. Montas has had a rough go of it as well, with a 6.68 ERA and a poor outing in his last start, where he allowed 7 earned runs over just 4 innings. He is projected to pitch slightly longer than Myers, averaging 5.1 innings, but also allowing about 2.8 earned runs, which isn’t encouraging given his recent form.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 3rd in MLB in team batting average, showcasing their ability to get on base. They have the 12th-best offense overall, but their power numbers are lacking, ranking 22nd in home runs. The Mets rank 13th in overall offense, but their batting average sits at 23rd, indicating some struggles in consistency.

With both teams’ pitchers battling recent difficulties, this game could ultimately hinge on which offense can capitalize on mistakes. While the Brewers have the upper hand in the standings and offense, the Mets will look to exploit any cracks in the Brewers’ pitching and come out on top in this critical matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Frankie Montas’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (55.1% compared to 47.7% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Brandon Nimmo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tobias Myers’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (92 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Andrew Vaughn has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 94.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 112 games (+26.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)