Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Reds vs Cubs Match Preview – August 05, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on August 5, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back after a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Cubs fell to the Reds 3-2. The Cubs currently sit at 65-47, enjoying a strong season and ranking 3rd in the MLB in offensive performance, while the Reds, at 59-54, are having an above-average year but are still seeking consistency.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher with an 8-4 record and a solid 3.25 ERA. Despite his average ranking as the 115th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest that he has been somewhat lucky this season, as indicated by his 4.71 xFIP. Imanaga’s last outing saw him pitch 5 innings with 3 earned runs and 8 strikeouts, showcasing his potential but also hinting at room for improvement.

Opposing him is Zack Littell, a right-handed pitcher with an 8-8 record and a 3.58 ERA. While his ERA is respectable, his advanced stats indicate that he may struggle, especially against a powerful Cubs lineup that has already hit 160 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in the league. Littell’s tendency to allow fly balls could be problematic in this matchup.

With the Cubs favored at a moneyline of -180, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive strength against a Reds team that ranks 14th in offensive performance. The projections suggest that the game total of 7.5 runs is low, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. As the Cubs look to avenge their recent loss, they have a favorable matchup that could lead to a positive outcome.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Zack Littell has gone to his slider 5.2% less often this year (34.7%) than he did last year (39.9%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  This season, Miguel Andujar has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 88.3 mph compared to last year’s 84.1 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+160)
  The 3rd-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Shota Imanaga’s 90.1-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.5-mph decline from last year’s 91.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) may lead us to conclude that Matt Shaw has been unlucky this year with his .220 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Chicago Cubs hitters jointly rank 4th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 10.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 78 games (+20.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)