Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Braves vs Reds – August 2, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Cincinnati Reds

On August 2, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves at Bristol Motor Speedway in a matchup that could have implications for both teams as they look to build momentum. The Reds enter the game with a record of 58-53, riding the wave of a recent victory over the Braves in a close contest, finishing 3-2. On the other hand, the Braves are struggling at 46-63, having lost their last outing against the Reds, marking another notch in what has been a tough season for them.

Cincinnati’s Chase Burns is projected to take the mound against Spencer Strider for Atlanta. While both are right-handed pitchers with strong rankings—Burns at 22nd and Strider at 27th in MLB—Burns has had a challenging season thus far, with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 and a troubling ERA of 6.26. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as his 2.54 xFIP points to better performances ahead. Conversely, Strider showcases a more favorable ERA of 3.71 and has shown flashes of talent, but he too has struggled with control, giving up an average of 1.9 walks per game.

The Reds offense has been average overall, ranking 14th in MLB, but their best hitter is heating up, boasting a .283 batting average and a solid OPS of .848. In contrast, the Braves’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 20th in MLB, and they are particularly poor at drawing walks, which could be an issue against Burns, who is known for his high walk rate.

With the projections favoring a close game, with the Reds sitting at +100 and the Braves at -120 on the moneyline, this matchup promises to be competitive, though Cincinnati appears to have the edge given the current trajectories of both teams.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Spencer Strider has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 3.3 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Despite posting a .268 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Harris II has experienced some negative variance given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Atlanta Braves have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eli White, Sean Murphy, Austin Riley).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Chase Burns’s high usage rate of his fastball (58.5% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In the past 7 days, Austin Hays’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds makes them the #28 team in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 84 games (+20.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 34% ROI)