Explore Mariners vs Angels Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/26/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on July 26, 2025, they find themselves in a disappointing position with a 50-54 record, while the Mariners, with a record of 55-49, are enjoying a better season. Both teams are vying for an edge in the American League West, and this matchup is crucial as they compete for playoff positioning.

In their last game, the Mariners edged out the Angels, adding pressure on the home side to turn things around. The Angels are projected to start Tyler Anderson, who has struggled this season, boasting a 2-6 record and ranking as the 202nd best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. His ERA sits at a modest 4.43, but a 5.14 xFIP indicates he may have been lucky thus far. Tyler Anderson’s tendency to allow fly balls could be a concern, especially against a powerful Mariners lineup that ranks 6th in MLB with 144 home runs.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with George Kirby, a more effective pitcher who ranks 33rd in MLB among starters. Kirby is coming off a solid performance and is projected to pitch 5.8 innings while allowing only 2.5 earned runs. This puts him in a favorable position against the Angels, whose offense ranks only 17th in the league. Although the Angels can hit home runs, their overall performance has been inconsistent, reflected in their poor .212 team batting average, which ranks 24th.

The projections suggest that the Angels have an average implied team total of 3.88 runs, while the Mariners sit with a higher total of 4.62 runs. With the Angels’ offense struggling and their bullpen ranked 26th in MLB, they will need a standout performance from Anderson to swing the momentum in their favor.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, George Kirby’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph is in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Typically, hitters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Anderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Logan O’Hoppe is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Mike Trout projects as the 12th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 90 games (+11.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  George Kirby has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)