Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Nationals vs Brewers – Sunday, July 13, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On July 13, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Washington Nationals at American Family Field for the third game of their series. The Brewers, boasting a solid record of 55-40, are firmly in the playoff mix, while the Nationals sit at 38-57, struggling to find their footing this season. The Brewers won the previous game in a nail-biting finish, edging out the Nationals 6-5 on July 12.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee, and his performance has been a key factor in the Brewers’ success. Ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, Peralta has a Win/Loss record of 10-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.74. His last outing on July 7 showcased his dominance as he pitched 6 innings, allowing no earned runs while striking out 7 batters. However, his xFIP of 3.98 suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate this season, indicating room for regression moving forward.

In contrast, Jake Irvin will start for Washington. While he has a decent Win/Loss record of 7-4, his ERA of 4.78 and poor projections, including a 5.43 xERA, imply he has struggled against stronger lineups. Irvin’s last start saw him surrender 4 earned runs over 6 innings, raising concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Brewers offense that ranks 17th overall in MLB.

Despite the Brewers’ average offensive ranking, they have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 2nd in the league. They are favored heavily in this matchup, with a moneyline of -260 and an implied team total of 5.21 runs. Conversely, the Nationals are listed as underdogs at +220, with a low implied team total of 3.29 runs. With Peralta on the mound and the Brewers’ recent momentum, they appear poised to continue their winning ways against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Jake Irvin’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (47.3% compared to 41.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Paul DeJong is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Among all SPs, Freddy Peralta’s fastball spin rate of 2449 rpm ranks in the 85th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350/-520)
  Grading out in the 91st percentile for base-stealing, Brice Turang has paced 28.4 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-275)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+15.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)