Bets and Betting Tips for Mets vs Royals – July 12, 2025

New York Mets

@

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the New York Mets at Kauffman Stadium on July 12, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. In the previous matchup, the Mets secured an 8-3 victory, continuing their strong season with a 54-41 record. Meanwhile, the Royals sit at 46-49, struggling to maintain consistency throughout the year.

Kansas City’s pitching duties will fall to Angel Zerpa, who has transitioned from the bullpen this season. Though Zerpa has an above-average ERA of 4.03, he is projected to pitch just 3.0 innings today, a concern given his 3.30 xFIP, suggesting he could have been unlucky so far. The Royals offense, ranking 26th in the league, faces a tough challenge against Frankie Montas, who, despite being one of the lower-tier pitchers with a 6.14 ERA, is expected to log about 5.4 innings today.

The Mets boast a potent lineup, ranking 9th in MLB offensively, highlighted by their 8th best home run count. Their best hitter has been especially impressive lately, posting a .348 batting average over the last week with 9 runs and 8 RBIs. The Royals, on the other hand, will rely on their best hitter, who has been on a hot streak as well, hitting .429 with 4 home runs in the same timeframe.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, the Mets’ implied team total sits at 4.97 runs, while the Royals are projected to score 4.53 runs. Betting markets suggest this could be a close contest, but the projections lean toward a potential upset as Kansas City looks to capitalize on their home advantage against a Mets team that may be due for a regression after a strong stretch.

New York Mets Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Frankie Montas has averaged 77.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 12th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Michael Lorenzen in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 4th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Salvador Perez has average 0 steals per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 78 games (+28.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Maikel Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 26% ROI)