Expert Player Predictions for Blue Jays vs White Sox – Monday, July 07, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 7, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field in a matchup that promises intrigue given the teams’ contrasting seasons. The White Sox, at 30-60, are struggling mightily, while the Blue Jays boast a strong 52-38 record. In their last game, the Blue Jays showcased their dominance, coming off a significant victory that has solidified their position as one of the better teams this season.

Sean Burke is projected to take the mound for the White Sox, and while he has an ERA of 4.03, his xFIP of 4.95 suggests that he might have been fortunate so far this year. Burke has struggled with walks, averaging 1.8 per game, and faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 11th in the league. This could spell trouble for the White Sox, whose offense is currently ranked 30th in MLB, yielding a low implied team total of just 3.65 runs.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with José Berrios, who has a solid ERA of 3.64, although his xFIP of 4.17 indicates he may also be due for a regression. Berrios has been effective but has allowed a concerning average of 5.3 hits per game. The Blue Jays’ offense, led by one of their best hitters batting .429 over the past week, ranks 4th in team batting average, projecting a high team total of 4.85 runs for this game.

Given the disparity in team performance and the starting pitchers’ current form, this matchup heavily favors the Blue Jays, who are looking to continue their strong season against a struggling White Sox squad.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his arsenal this season and has worked it in 27.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Lukes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Sean Burke’s fastball spin rate of 2557 rpm ranks in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Miguel Vargas has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+145)
  The 3rd-worst projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.39 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-180)
  Mike Tauchman has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)