Royals vs D-Backs Picks and Odds – July 05, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On July 5, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Kansas City Royals at Chase Field in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks are looking to bounce back after suffering a lopsided 9-3 loss to the Royals just a day prior. With both teams hovering around .500, the stakes are particularly high as neither squad is in a strong position to contend for a playoff spot at this time in the season.

The Diamondbacks’ offense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 3rd in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs with power, as evidenced by their 4th best ranking in team home runs. They are projected to face Michael Wacha, who has struggled this year with a 4-8 record and an elevated 4.35 xFIP, indicating he may have benefited from good luck thus far. In contrast, Ryne Nelson, projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, has been solid with a 4-2 record and a commendable 3.61 ERA. His most recent outing saw him pitch effectively, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs against him.

While both pitchers are right-handers, Nelson’s favorable matchup against a Royals offense that ranks 26th overall suggests he could have the upper hand. The Royals have not only struggled to hit for power but also possess the 20th best team batting average, making this a challenging matchup for them.

The Diamondbacks enter as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs, while the Royals sit at +120, with an average implied team total of 4.19 runs. Given the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive capabilities and Nelson’s solid performance, they are well-positioned to even the series and secure a much-needed victory.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Michael Wacha has relied on his change-up 6.2% less often this season (26.1%) than he did last season (32.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Nick Loftin’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals grades them out as the #28 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Alek Thomas has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph dropping to 73.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Today, James McCann is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 68 games (+13.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 66 games (+22.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)