Player Analysis for Orioles vs Braves – July 05, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Atlanta Braves

On July 5, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Baltimore Orioles at Truist Park for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves sitting at 39-48 and the Orioles at 38-49. The Braves have been particularly disappointing, ranking 20th in MLB in offense and 22nd in bullpen strength. Meanwhile, the Orioles are slightly better, ranked 19th in overall offense but still battling inconsistency.

In their previous matchup, the Braves fell short against the Orioles, continuing a trend of lackluster performances. The Braves are projected to start Aaron Bummer, a left-handed pitcher who has had a solid season with a 2.86 ERA despite only making appearances out of the bullpen. He has a respectable Power Ranking at 46th among MLB starters, suggesting he can perform well against weaker lineups. However, he projects to pitch only 3.1 innings today, which raises concerns about his effectiveness.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Dean Kremer, a right-handed pitcher who has a 4.27 ERA and has struggled this season. Kremer’s projections indicate he will allow an average of 3.3 earned runs, 5.7 hits, and 1.8 walks today, which could spell trouble against a Braves lineup that, despite its struggles, has the potential to capitalize on poor pitching.

With the Braves’ implied team total set at 4.97 runs, they are expected to score, but they will need to overcome their recent offensive woes. The projections suggest that while both teams have been underwhelming, the Braves might have the edge if Bummer can deliver a strong performance early in the game. The total for this matchup is currently set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating that both offenses may find opportunities to put runs on the board.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  With a 1.13 gap between Aaron Bummer’s 2.86 ERA and his 3.99 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and should see worse results in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Dean Kremer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-110/-120)
  Dean Kremer has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 18% ROI)