Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Marlins – July 4th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Miami Marlins

On July 4, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at LoanDepot Park in what marks the opening game of their series. The Marlins, with a record of 39-46, are currently sitting below average this season, while the Brewers, with a solid 48-39 record, are faring much better. The Marlins are coming off a win against the Brewers yesterday, where they secured a 4-1 victory.

The matchup features Sandy Alcantara projected to take the mound for Miami. Alcantara’s current season has been a struggle, highlighted by a troubling 6.98 ERA, although his 4.54 xFIP suggests he may be due for some positive regression. He’s been effective in pitching longer at 6.0 innings per game but needs to limit the 5.6 hits and 1.7 walks he usually allows. Conversely, Quinn Priester is set to pitch for Milwaukee. Priester has had a strong season with a 3.35 ERA, although the projections indicate some potential for regression.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 18th in MLB, which is average overall but boasts a commendable 10th rank in team batting average. However, their lack of power, standing 26th in team home runs, may play to Priester’s groundball tendencies, as he pitches well in keeping balls on the ground. The Brewers’ offense ranks 16th overall, with their top hitter performing well recently, which could pose a challenge for Alcantara.

With the current moneyline suggesting a competitive matchup—Miami at +110 and Milwaukee at -130—the projections lean slightly in favor of the Brewers, yet Alcantara’s potential for improvement could make this a tight game. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a balanced offensive performance from both clubs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester (53% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Rhys Hoskins has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 97.9-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 team in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Given the 2.91 gap between Sandy Alcantara’s 6.97 ERA and his 4.06 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to see positive regression in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, hitters like Dane Myers who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Quinn Priester.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+14.45 Units / 68% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 86 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+115)
  Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)