Player Stats for Giants vs D-Backs – June 30th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 30, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League West matchup. Both teams are coming off losses in their last games, with the Diamondbacks falling 6-4 to the Giants and San Francisco losing 5-2 to another opponent.

In terms of standings, the Diamondbacks currently sit at 41-42, showcasing an average season, while the Giants are slightly better at 45-39, giving them an above-average record. Given that this is the first game of their series, both teams will be eager to gain an early edge. Ryne Nelson, the Diamondbacks’ projected starter, ranks as the 112th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, which aligns with his average performance this season. He has a 4-2 record and a respectable 3.71 ERA, but he struggles with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.4 hits and 1.3 walks today.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, who is enjoying an elite season as the 6th ranked pitcher in MLB. With a 7-5 record and an impressive 2.52 ERA, Webb has shown he can effectively limit runs. However, his xERA of 3.03 suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, which could even the playing field for the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their powerful ability to hit home runs, ranking 5th in that category. In contrast, the Giants’ offense struggles, currently ranked 24th overall and 25th in batting average. This stark difference in offensive output may be crucial, particularly when pitching matchups favor Webb’s dominance against a less potent lineup.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with Arizona’s moneyline at +110 and San Francisco’s at -130. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations of a competitive showdown. With the Diamondbacks aiming to exploit their offensive talent against Webb, this game could serve as a pivotal moment for both teams as they navigate through the season.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 19.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average starter, Logan Webb has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 9.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (65.1 vs. 56% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ketel Marte has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 98.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .335 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 68 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)