Picks and Betting Guide for Nationals vs Angels – Sunday, June 29, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Washington Nationals on June 29, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup between two teams struggling to find their footing this season. The Angels sit at .500 with a record of 41-41, while the Nationals have fallen to a disappointing 34-49. In their most recent clash, the Angels took the win, but both teams are looking for consistency as they navigate a challenging campaign.

Jack Kochanowicz is set to take the mound for the Angels, marking his 17th start of the season. Although his 3-8 record and 5.49 ERA reflect struggles, his 4.73 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and may improve. The projections estimate Kochanowicz will pitch about 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. However, he faces a Nationals offense that has averaged 4.71 runs according to the current odds, bolstered by their top hitter’s recent form.

Mitchell Parker will counter for Washington, and though he boasts a 5-8 record and a more respectable 4.59 ERA, the projections indicate that he may not sustain this level of performance. Parker’s low strikeout rate could play into the Angels’ hands, as they are among the highest in MLB for strikeouts this season. This matchup could favor the Angels’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs, potentially turning Parker’s high-flyball tendencies into run-scoring opportunities.

Given the close moneyline odds—Angels at -135 and Nationals at +115—betting markets anticipate a tight contest. With both teams looking to solidify their identities as they head into the latter half of the season, this game could be pivotal for the Angels to regain some momentum.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Out of all starters, Mitchell Parker’s fastball spin rate of 2165 rpm grades out in the 7th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington’s 93.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #5 team in MLB this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Luis Rengifo is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Kevin Newman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Newman in the 4th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games (+15.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)