Giants vs White Sox Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday June 29, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on June 29, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, both teams are looking to shake off recent inconsistencies. The Giants enter this matchup with a record of 45-38, while the White Sox are struggling significantly at 27-56 this season. After their last game, the Giants will be eager to rebound from a tough loss, but they are still positioned as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, suggesting a solid chance of victory.

On the mound, Chicago is projected to start Jonathan Cannon, who has had a rough season with a 2-7 record and ranks as the 235th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the least effective pitchers. Cannon’s ERA stands at a mediocre 4.66, and he projects to pitch just 3.8 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. Comparatively, San Francisco’s Justin Verlander, despite a below-average season himself, offers a bit more stability with a 0-5 record and an ERA of 4.52. Verlander’s expected ERA of 5.07 indicates he may have been fortunate, but he still projects to pitch 5.2 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed.

The White Sox offense has been a significant liability, ranking 30th in MLB with a dismal batting average and home run output. Their inability to capitalize on flyballs could play right into Verlander’s hands, as he is a high-flyball pitcher facing an offense that has hit only 65 home runs this season, the 3rd least in MLB. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s offense ranks 24th, not much better but still has the potential to exploit Chicago’s weaknesses.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the matchup leans towards a low-scoring affair, which may favor the Giants given their stronger bullpen, ranked 2nd best in MLB. The projections suggest that despite the White Sox’s struggles, they may not be entirely outmatched, but they will need to find a way to outperform their current standings to secure a win.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Willy Adames has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 99.1-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Jonathan Cannon has gone to his cutter 6.4% more often this season (26.2%) than he did last season (19.8%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of San Francisco (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-130/+100)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 73% ROI)