Check Out the Phillies vs Braves Best Bets and Expert Picks – Saturday June 28, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

On June 28, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies in what promises to be an exciting National League East matchup at Truist Park. The Braves are struggling this season with a record of 37-44, while the Phillies are enjoying a great year at 48-34. In their last encounter on June 27, the Braves suffered a heavy defeat, losing 13-0, a stark reminder of their recent struggles.

The Braves are set to start Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been a bright spot in their rotation, ranking as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Schwellenbach boasts a solid 3.21 ERA and has a win-loss record of 6-4 this season. However, he has shown some inconsistency, projecting to allow an average of 5.6 hits and 1.1 walks today, which could be concerning against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who is having a good season with a 4.08 ERA and a 7-3 record. Luzardo has been effective in his recent starts, but he projects to allow 3.0 earned runs today, which could be a challenge against a Braves offense that ranks 21st in MLB. The projections suggest that both pitchers will have their work cut out for them, especially considering the Braves’ recent offensive woes.

The Braves’ offense has struggled to produce runs, ranking 21st overall, while the Phillies boast the 7th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 4th best team batting average. With the Braves favored at a moneyline of -150 and an implied team total of 4.35 runs, there is potential for them to bounce back. However, they will need to capitalize on their opportunities against a solid Phillies squad that has been performing at a high level.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has increased by 7.7% from last season to this one (29.2% to 36.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies batters as a unit have been one of the best in the league this year (6th-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 94th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Matt Olson has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Otto Kemp – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-170)
  Otto Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 59% ROI)