Explore the Game Breakdown: Padres vs Reds Team Stats and Insights – 6/28/2025

San Diego Padres

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the San Diego Padres on June 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in above-average seasons, with the Reds at 43-39 and the Padres slightly ahead at 44-37. This matchup is crucial as they vie for position in the tightly contested National League. The Reds come off a strong performance, having secured a victory in the series opener, which adds extra motivation for today’s game.

Andrew Abbott is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati, boasting a stellar Win-Loss record of 7-1 and an exceptional ERA of 1.79. While Abbott’s xFIP of 4.03 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune, he has nevertheless been effective in limiting earned runs, projected to allow 2.9 today—an impressive figure. Abbott’s high flyball rate could serve him well against a Padres lineup that ranks 26th in home runs, indicating a potential advantage for the lefty.

On the other side, San Diego will counter with Randy Vasquez, whose 3.60 ERA is solid but belies his struggles, as indicated by his 5.67 xFIP. His average projection suggests he may only pitch 4.5 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs and 1.7 walks, which could be troubling against a Reds offense ranked 13th in MLB.

Cincinnati’s offense appears poised for success, especially given their strong performance from their best hitter, who has been lighting it up recently, hitting .500 with 12 hits over the last week. With the Reds favored at -150 and a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, fans can expect an exciting game as both teams look to capitalize on their respective pitching matchups.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Randy Vasquez’s 92.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 2-mph decline from last season’s 94.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 18% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Will Benson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+10.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 65% ROI)