Explore the Dodgers vs Royals Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Friday, June 27, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Kansas City Royals

On June 27, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Kauffman Stadium for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup with contrasting fortunes; the Royals sit at 38-43, clearly having a below-average season, while the Dodgers are thriving with a 51-31 record and boast the 1st best offense in MLB.

Noah Cameron, the projected starter for the Royals, has had an up-and-down year, featuring a respectable ERA of 2.08, but an elevated xFIP of 4.33 suggests he may not maintain this excellence. Cameron, a left-handed pitcher, has only started eight games this season, with a 2-3 Win/Loss record. His projections today indicate he will struggle, likely pitching just 4.9 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs and 5.6 hits, which presents a tough challenge against a powerful Dodgers lineup that leads MLB with 128 home runs this season.

Dustin May, taking the mound for Los Angeles, has had a solid season with a 4.46 ERA and an average projection. His ability to keep the ball on the ground will be crucial against a Royals offense that ranks 27th in overall production and 29th in home runs. The projections suggest May could pitch roughly 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs while also facing a lineup that doesn’t capitalize on power.

The Royals’ strong bullpen, ranked 4th best in MLB, could provide some late-game relief, potentially helping them keep the score down. In a matchup where Kansas City’s offense has struggled and the Dodgers are expected to dominate, the Royals will need more than just good pitching to vie for the upset.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Dustin May (45.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Miguel Rojas has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 88.7-mph average to last year’s 86.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers bats jointly grade out 4th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Noah Cameron has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dustin May.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 65 games (+26.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+190/-255)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)