Review Mariners vs Twins Bets and Betting Trends – Thursday, June 26, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Seattle Mariners at Target Field on June 26, 2025, both teams are coming off a notable matchup the previous day, where the Twins secured a 2-0 victory over the Mariners. This is the fourth game in the series, and the stakes feel significant for both sides given their contrasting seasons thus far. The Twins (38-42) are struggling, while the Mariners (41-38) have been performing above average.

Projected starters for this contest are Simeon Woods Richard for the Twins and Emerson Hancock for the Mariners. Woods Richard has had a rough year, with a 2-4 record and a 5.06 ERA, placing him as the 169th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. His last outing was uneventful, allowing 3 earned runs over 6 innings. In contrast, Hancock has also been underwhelming this season, with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 5.43. He was blown up in his last start, yielding 9 earned runs in just 4 innings.

Offensively, the Twins rank 16th in MLB, which is average, but their 21st ranking in batting average showcases their struggles at the plate. They do boast a respectable 12th ranking in home runs, but their lack of speed on the bases (29th in stolen bases) is concerning. Meanwhile, the Mariners come in with a much stronger offense, ranked 7th overall, and their best hitter has been particularly hot recently, boasting a .400 batting average over the past week with 5 home runs.

Looking at the projections, the Twins have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs, suggesting that the betting markets expect them to score effectively. However, with the disparity in offensive performance and recent pitching form, the Mariners may have the upper hand in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Emerson Hancock is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Mitch Garver has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 97.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Simeon Woods Richardson has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.4% less often this season (54.4%) than he did last season (59.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Emerson Hancock.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Kody Clemens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 76 games (+5.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-255)
  Kody Clemens has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)