Explore the Rays vs Royals Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Kansas City Royals

On June 24, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup that could be pivotal for both teams as they look to improve their standings. The Royals sit at 38-40, reflecting an average season, while the Rays are faring better at 43-35, indicating a solid performance thus far. This game marks the first encounter in their series, and both teams aim to build momentum.

Kris Bubic is projected to start for the Royals. He boasts a 6-4 record and an impressive 2.12 ERA, ranking 35th among MLB starting pitchers. However, Bubic’s 3.43 xFIP suggests he may have enjoyed a bit of luck this season, and his projections show he might allow 2.4 earned runs over an average of 5.7 innings pitched. Facing him will be Taj Bradley, who has a 4-5 record and a less favorable 4.95 ERA, ranking 85th among starters. Despite his struggles, projections indicate that he could perform better moving forward, as he faces a Royals offense that ranks 27th in overall performance but is average in batting average.

The Royals’ offense has been weak in terms of power, ranking 29th in home runs, which may play to Bradley’s advantage as he generates a high groundball rate. On the other hand, the Rays’ offense ranks 11th overall and is particularly strong in stolen bases, which could pose a threat to the Royals’ less effective bullpen, currently ranked 21st.

In their last game, the Royals’ best hitter managed to record 9 hits over the past week, showcasing some offensive potential, but the team will need more consistent production if they hope to outpace the Rays, who have a favorable moneyline of +120 against the Royals’ -140. With an implied team total of 4.54 runs for Kansas City, they are favored to take the win, but the match-up suggests that the Rays may have opportunities to capitalize on any mistakes.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Taj Bradley (43.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Kansas City’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Kris Bubic has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.12 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.85 — a 1.73 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 100.2-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 72 games (+25.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 55 games (+12.58 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Jonathan India has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 81% ROI)