Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Nationals vs Dodgers 6/20/25

Washington Nationals

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the Washington Nationals to Dodger Stadium for the first game of their series on June 20, 2025. The Dodgers, currently holding a solid 46-29 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals struggle at 31-44. This matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals.

Kershaw has started six games this year, boasting a 2-0 record and a commendable ERA of 3.25. However, his 4.33 xFIP suggests he might be due for a regression. While Kershaw is known for his ability to strike out batters, he faces a Nationals offense that ranks 4th lowest in strikeouts. This could play into the hands of Washington, as Kershaw may find it challenging to leverage his strikeout prowess against a disciplined lineup.

On the other hand, MacKenzie Gore presents a different challenge for the Dodgers. With a 3-6 record and an impressive ERA of 2.89, Gore has been a bright spot for the Nationals this season. However, he is a high-flyball pitcher going up against the Dodgers’ powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 116 home runs. This dynamic could favor Los Angeles, as they have the ability to capitalize on Gore’s flyballs.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks 1st in MLB, showcasing their strength with a high batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Nationals rank 22nd in overall offense, making this a daunting task for Gore. With the Dodgers’ bullpen also rated 8th in MLB, they appear well-positioned to secure a victory.

Despite the odds favoring the Dodgers with a moneyline of -195, which suggests an implied team total of 4.90 runs, the Nationals will need to find a way to exploit any weaknesses in Kershaw’s performance to keep the game competitive.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decline from last season’s 95.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under Total Bases
  Josh Bell has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 97.1-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andres Chaparro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Andres Chaparro hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Clayton Kershaw is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all parks — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball batters like Miguel Rojas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like MacKenzie Gore.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-195)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup ranks as the best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+12.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.04 Units / 23% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Andy Pages has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)