D-Backs vs Rockies Picks and Betting Trends – 6/20/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

On June 20, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field for the first game in their series. Both teams are having contrasting seasons, with the Rockies struggling at 17-58, while the Diamondbacks sit at a more respectable 37-37. As these two teams meet, the stakes are relatively low for Colorado, but they will aim to leverage their home advantage against a D-Backs team that boasts the 3rd best offense in MLB.

In their most recent game, the Diamondbacks showcased their power, hitting a total of three home runs, and they will look to continue that trend against Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber. Gomber, a left-hander, is projected to struggle, with a 4.39 xFIP suggesting he has been fortunate this season, despite an impressive 0.00 ERA over one start. He is expected to pitch about 4.9 innings while allowing an average of 4.0 earned runs, 6.8 hits, and 1.4 walks.

On the other hand, Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ right-handed starter, enters the game with a 5.19 ERA but a more favorable 4.31 xFIP indicating he may see better results moving forward. Gallen is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.4 earned runs and striking out approximately 5.8 batters.

The Rockies’ offense ranks 26th overall in MLB, struggling against a powerful D-Backs team that leads in home runs. The projections indicate a high-scoring affair, with a Game Total set at 12.0 runs, reflecting the expectations for runs generated by both teams. Given the current odds, the Rockies are labeled as significant underdogs, but with Gomber’s surprising start and home field, they may just steal the show.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Zac Gallen is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks offense projects for the most runs of all teams on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Austin Gomber will benefit from squaring off against 7 batters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season’s 92-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+7.52 Units / 10% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games (+11.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Jordan Beck has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)