Check Out Rockies vs Nationals Picks and Betting Tips – Thursday June 19th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park on June 19, 2025, both teams are struggling through disappointing seasons. The Nationals sit at 30-44, while the Rockies have an even worse record of 17-57. This matchup marks the fourth game in the series, and both teams are coming off contrasting performances yesterday, with the Nationals suffering a 3-1 loss while the Rockies celebrated a similar victory.

On the mound for the Nationals is Trevor Williams, projected to start after a solid outing in his last game where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Williams, despite his low ranking as the 245th best starting pitcher in MLB, has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his 4.31 xFIP compared to a troubling 5.71 ERA. He projects to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which might give the Nationals a fighting chance against the Rockies’ struggling offense.

Chase Dollander will take the hill for Colorado, bringing a 6.57 ERA into the game. Though he has shown flashes of potential, including a recent 6-inning performance yielding 3 earned runs, his underlying metrics suggest he has also faced bad luck this season. With a projected average of 5.0 innings pitched while allowing 3.0 earned runs, he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 22nd in the league offensively.

The Nationals’ best hitter has been hot recently, posting a .360 batting average over the last week and a 1.204 OPS, which could prove pivotal against Dollander. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ best hitter has been performing well too, boasting a .412 average in his last five games. Despite their poor standings, the Nationals enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their potential to capitalize on the Rockies’ struggles. With the game total set at 9.5 runs, the matchup promises to be an intriguing clash between two teams in dire need of a win.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Chase Dollander and his 36% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today’s game being matched up with 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Ryan McMahon has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Trevor Williams has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.71 mark is quite a bit higher than his 4.02 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Washington’s 8.3° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the league this year: #30 overall.
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.19 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+120)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)