Rays vs Mets Bets and Betting Trends – 6/14/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on June 14, 2025, at Citi Field, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the league. The Mets currently boast a strong record of 45-25, positioning themselves well in the playoff race. In contrast, the Rays hold a record of 37-32, placing them in a more precarious position as they seek to improve their standing.

In their previous matchup, the Mets demonstrated their offensive prowess, winning decisively. Tylor Megill is projected to take the mound for New York, coming off a solid season with a 3.76 ERA and a 5-4 record. Despite a decent performance, Megill’s advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, with a 3.16 FIP indicating potential for improved results. He is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs, which is favorable for the Mets.

On the other hand, Drew Rasmussen, who has also started 13 games this season, brings an impressive 2.22 ERA to the table. While Rasmussen ranks as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, his projections indicate that he may face challenges today, particularly against a powerful Mets offense that ranks 5th overall. However, Rasmussen’s high groundball rate (51 GB%) could work in his favor, potentially neutralizing the Mets’ home run threat.

With the Mets’ offense generating significant runs and their strong standing, they are expected to capitalize on Rasmussen’s lower strikeout projections and the Rays’ average performance at the plate. The game total is set at a low 7.0 runs, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. As both teams vie for crucial wins, expect a tightly contested game with the Mets slightly favored to come out on top.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.7% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tylor Megill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Josh Lowe has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Among all starting pitchers, Tylor Megill’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph grades out in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-145)
  The 4th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+9.25 Units / 109% ROI)