Review Guardians vs Mariners Betting Line and Odds – 6/13/2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on June 13, 2025, both teams find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of recent performance. The Guardians are coming off a resounding 11-2 victory, while the Mariners last faced defeat, losing 5-2 in their previous outing. This matchup marks the first game in the series, highlighting the importance of setting a tone early.

Currently, the Mariners stand at 33-34, showcasing an average season thus far, while the Guardians boast a 35-32 record, indicating a slightly better performance. Mariners’ starting pitcher Luis Castillo, ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, is projected to take the mound. This year, Castillo has a strong ERA of 3.31, although his 4.26 xFIP suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate and could experience regression.

Contrastingly, Guardians’ Gavin Williams comes in with a slightly better ranking at 73rd, carrying a solid ERA of 3.86. Both pitchers excel in their strikeout abilities, but they face offenses with differing capabilities. The Mariners rank 12th in MLB for offensive performance, powered by a potent home run threat, while the Guardians struggle at 24th, particularly in batting average.

Looking ahead, the Mariners are projected to score 3.54 runs, which feels low given their offensive potential, especially with their best hitter recently displaying a hot streak, batting .400 over the past week. As this game unfolds, the Mariners will aim to leverage their home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park, while the Guardians seek to keep their momentum rolling. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Gavin Williams has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.7% more often this season (54.3%) than he did last year (48.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Jones can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Lane Thomas, Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph fall off from last year’s 95.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  When it comes to his home runs, Cal Raleigh has been very fortunate this year. His 54.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 38.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 49% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)