Get Bets and Betting Tips for Cubs vs Phillies – 6/11/2025

Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs on June 11, 2025, this game carries significant weight in the National League standings. The Cubs, currently holding a record of 41-26, are having a great season and are positioned to challenge for the division title, while the Phillies sit at 38-29, looking to close the gap. This matchup has implications for Wild Card positioning, adding extra drama to the series.

In their previous game, the Cubs emerged victorious, showcasing the prowess of their offense, which currently ranks as the 4th best in MLB. Their lineup is performing exceptionally well, highlighted by a recent hot streak from their best hitter, who has been a force with 8 hits and 4 home runs over the past week, posting a stellar 1.125 OPS.

On the mound, the Phillies are set to start Jesus Luzardo, who is projected to pitch about 5.6 innings and aims to improve on his average 4.46 ERA this season. Although Luzardo has faced some bad luck, evidenced by his favorable 3.22 xFIP, he has shown promise with a solid 5-2 record through 13 starts.

Opposing him will be Ben Brown for the Cubs. Despite his struggles, reflected in a 5.37 ERA and 3.22 xFIP indicating he might have been unlucky, Brown has shown flashes of potential. He also projects to pitch 5.0 innings today, which is below-average for a starter.

While both bullpens have their weaknesses—ranked 21st and 25th, respectively—the Phillies’ offense, 9th in MLB, could capitalize on any opportunities presented by the Cubs’ relief corps. Overall, all signs suggest a competitive matchup where the Phillies, bolstered by home-field advantage and a strong projected team total of 4.30 runs, could pull off a solid performance against the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ben Brown is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Carson Kelly has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has spiked by 7% from last year to this one (29.2% to 36.2%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Johan Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 86.2-mph average last season has lowered to 82.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Philadelphia has been the #2 squad in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.7% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)