Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+105
The Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals face off on June 8, 2025, in the third game of their series at Guaranteed Rate Field. Both teams have struggled this season, with the White Sox sitting at 22-43 and the Royals at 33-32. While the Royals are having an average season, the White Sox’s record reflects a difficult campaign. In their last matchup on June 7, the White Sox pulled off a much-needed victory, winning 4-1 over Kansas City, who is trying to gain momentum.
The projected starting pitchers contribute to the matchup dynamics. Mike Vasil of the White Sox, despite having a solid ERA of 1.89, ranks as the 247th best starting pitcher in MLB. His low strikeout rate of 16.8% might not favor him against the Royals, who strike out the least in MLB. Additionally, Vasil’s high walk rate (13.0%) could be less of a concern against a Royals’ offense that exhibits patience with the lowest walk rate in the league.
On the other side, Michael Lorenzen has had considerable struggles, with a 5.12 ERA and a 3-6 record. However, projections suggest that he might improve, as his xFIP of 4.35 indicates he has experienced some bad luck this season. With the White Sox offense ranking 28th in runs, batting average, and home runs, Lorenzen might find an opportunity to exploit their weaknesses.
Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the White Sox’s moneyline at +110 and the Royals at -130. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, hinting at potential scoring. As both teams look to build on their previous performances, this matchup provides an intriguing opportunity for observers and bettors alike.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Tallying 92.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Michael Lorenzen falls in the 80th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Over the past 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)Mike Vasil has been lucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 1.89 figure is a good deal lower than his 4.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Luis Robert Jr. has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+105)The 4th-worst projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Chicago White Sox.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 games (+25.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+135/-175)Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)