Player Props for Blue Jays vs Twins – Saturday June 07, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on June 7, 2025, Target Field will play host to the second game of this pivotal series. Both teams are sitting at identical 34-29 records, showcasing their above-average performance this season. The Twins, currently ranked 18th in offense, are looking to bounce back after a tough 6-4 loss to the Blue Jays yesterday, while the Blue Jays aim to build on their recent victory.

On the mound, Chris Paddack takes the hill for the Twins, projected to pitch 5.5 innings with an average of 2.9 earned runs allowed. Despite his recent complete game performance where he struck out 10 batters, his overall season statistics highlight some struggles, including a 2-5 win/loss record and a below-average strikeout rate. This matchup against a Blue Jays offense that has the least strikeouts in MLB could be a challenge for Paddack, as his low strikeout rate (18.7 K%) may not capitalize on this weakness.

Kevin Gausman, starting for the Blue Jays, comes in with a 5-4 record and solid ERA of 3.82. His projections indicate he will pitch 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs, along with a good strikeout rate of 6.0 batters. This could give the Blue Jays an edge in today’s contest, especially considering Gausman’s favorable 3.22 FIP suggests he’s had some bad luck this season and may outperform his current statistics.

With the Twins’ offense struggling, ranked 20th in team batting average and home runs, they will need significant contributions from their best hitters, who have shown promise recently. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays boast a 9th best team batting average, which could provide a strong advantage as both teams vie for crucial wins in this tightly contested matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kevin Gausman in the 80th percentile among all starters in baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Nathan Lukes generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Paddack.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-120)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kody Clemens has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 11.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.8° mark is among the highest in the game this year (#6 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+220/-300)
  Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.75 Units / 135% ROI)