D-Backs vs Reds Picks and Betting Trends – 6/06/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 6, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, both teams find themselves in interesting positions. The Reds, who hold a record of 30-33, are coming off a week marked by inconsistency, while the Diamondbacks sport a slightly better record at 31-31. This matchup features two left-handed pitchers, with the Reds set to start Nick Lodolo, who is currently the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the D-Backs, ranked slightly higher at 75th.

Lodolo has been a bright spot for Cincinnati, posting a solid ERA of 3.10 this season, and although his 4.4 Win/Loss record suggests some inconsistencies, his underlying metrics indicate that he has had some luck on his side. That said, he projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings while allowing 3.3 earned runs and striking out only 4.3 batters, which could pose challenges as he faces a D-Backs offense ranked 4th overall in MLB.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, has struggled significantly with a 7.05 ERA and a Win/Loss record of just 1-3. However, the projections suggest he might see improvement moving forward, as he has been unlucky this season, with a 3.82 xFIP indicating room for better performance. He is expected to pitch 3.8 innings and projects to allow 2.0 earned runs, which may bode well for the Reds’ offense that ranks 13th overall.

With both teams looking to secure an early advantage in this series, betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a close contest. The projected game total is 9.5 runs, suggesting that the offenses could play a significant role. As both teams look to break out of their respective ruts, the matchup between Lodolo and Rodriguez could very well dictate the course of the game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Eduardo Rodriguez to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Gabriel Moreno’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 91.7-mph seasonal average has decreased to 81.5-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.8% more often this season (50.5%) than he did last season (43.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Trevino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jose Trevino has been lucky this year, posting a .347 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .279 — a .068 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)