See the Updated Player Rankings for Royals vs Cardinals – 6/5/25

Kansas City Royals

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St. Louis Cardinals

On June 5, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium for the second game of a doubleheader. Both teams are currently in the thick of competition, with the Cardinals holding a record of 33-27 and the Royals at 32-29. Despite their recent struggles, the Cardinals are looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Royals on June 3, where they fell 10-7.

Pitching will be a key factor in this matchup, with the Cardinals set to start Matthew Liberatore, who is ranked 113th among MLB starters, indicating an average performance this season. Liberatore has had some ups and downs, including a recent outing where he allowed four earned runs over five innings. Meanwhile, the Royals will counter with Cole Ragans, who’s having an impressive season, currently ranked 8th among MLB starters. Ragans has a solid ERA of 4.53 but has been unlucky according to projections, suggesting he may improve moving forward.

From an offensive perspective, the Cardinals rank 10th overall in MLB and boast a strong batting average, sitting at 3rd in the league. However, they struggle with power and are 24th in home runs. The Royals, on the other hand, are ranked 26th in overall offensive performance, with a particularly poor showing in home runs, sitting at 30th. This discrepancy could give the Cardinals an edge, especially if they can capitalize on Ragans’ tendency to allow hits.

Betting markets indicate that the Cardinals are favored at -120, reflecting a close contest. With an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, they will need to leverage their offensive strengths against a Royals team that, while above average in batting average, has shown vulnerability in power hitting.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans should be in good shape squaring off against 6 bats in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mark Canha – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Mark Canha has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals bats collectively grade out 29th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 6.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101.2-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 48 games (+22.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 39% ROI)