Winning Probability and Match Preview for Blue Jays vs Rangers – 5/26/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers will host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 26, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup as both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Rangers currently sit at 26-28, while the Blue Jays are not far behind with a record of 25-27. Both teams have had below-average seasons so far, and this game marks the first in their series.

In their last outings, the Rangers secured a tight 5-4 victory, showcasing a glimpse of offensive life, while the Blue Jays suffered a harsh 13-0 defeat, highlighting their struggles. This context sets the stage for the pitching duel between Jacob deGrom and Kevin Gausman. DeGrom, the Rangers’ ace, is projected to start, boasting an impressive 2.33 ERA and ranking as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB per the leading MLB projection system. His recent performance included 7 innings pitched with only 2 earned runs and 9 strikeouts on May 21.

Conversely, Gausman has also shown flashes of brilliance, most recently throwing 7 scoreless innings, but his overall ERA stands at 4.03, marking him as an average pitcher. The Rangers’ offense, however, has struggled this season, ranking 27th in MLB, which could play into Gausman’s favor.

The projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with a game total set at 7.0 runs. The Rangers’ bullpen ranks dead last in MLB, which could be a concern if the game remains close late. Betting markets favor the Rangers, with a moneyline of -135, indicating a belief in their ability to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ recent woes. With both teams desperate for a win, this matchup promises to be a tightly contested battle.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Kevin Gausman has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Daulton Varsho has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.4% rate last year to 22.6% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Today, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (77th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given the 1.3 discrepancy between Jacob deGrom’s 9.62 K/9 and his 10.92 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform better going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Jung has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year’s 92.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.91 Units / 16% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh Jung has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)