Find Betting Odds and Bets for Dodgers vs Mets – May 25th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

New York Mets

On May 25, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field in what shapes up to be an exciting matchup between two teams enjoying strong seasons. The Mets currently sit at 31-21, while the Dodgers boast a slightly better record of 32-20. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this game critical as they face off for the third time in this series. In their last encounter on May 24, the Mets emerged victorious with a 5-2 win, adding to their momentum.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets. With a solid ERA of 1.43 and a Power Rankings standing of 51st among approximately 350 pitchers, Senga has been a reliable force this season. However, his xFIP of 4.13 suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, indicating a potential regression. The projections estimate he will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.8 batters. Facing him is Landon Knack, who has struggled with a 6.17 ERA and ranks as one of the worst pitchers in the league. Knack’s projections indicate he might pitch 4.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs while striking out only 4.2 batters.

Offensively, the Mets rank 8th in MLB, while the Dodgers are 2nd, showcasing their potent lineup. The Dodgers lead the league in batting average, which could pose a challenge for Senga, especially given his high walk rate of 10.8%. Conversely, Knack’s high walk percentage could benefit the Mets, who are patient at the plate.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Considering that groundball batters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Landon Knack and his 39.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today’s matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Tommy Edman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Mookie Betts hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kodai Senga must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 62.4% of the time, placing in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Pete Alonso has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.24 Units / 15% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 34% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 57% ROI)