Review Betting Odds and Picks for Tigers vs Cardinals – Monday, May 19, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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St. Louis Cardinals

On May 19, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Detroit Tigers in an intriguing interleague matchup at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, currently standing at 26-21, are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Tigers just one day prior, where they fell 2-1. Meanwhile, the Tigers have been on a roll, owning a record of 31-16 and coming off a victory in their last outing, where they edged out their opponent 3-2.

Starting for St. Louis is Sonny Gray, who has had an up-and-down season but ranks as the 35th best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, signaling a solid but not elite performance. Gray’s ERA stands at 4.50, though his xFIP of 3.53 suggests he may be due for a turnaround. In his last start on May 14, he struggled significantly, allowing 7 earned runs over just 4 innings.

On the mound for Detroit is Keider Montero, projected to be one of the weaker pitchers in the league. Montero’s 4.68 ERA combined with a FIP of 5.83 indicates he has been more fortunate than good this season. His recent performance also reflects struggles, having gone only 3 innings in his last outing, giving up 3 earned runs.

The Cardinals’ offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB and is particularly strong in batting average, sitting 4th overall. However, they struggle with power, ranking only 19th in home runs. The Tigers, on the other hand, boast a 5th overall ranking in offense and are tied for 7th in home runs, providing a stark contrast to St. Louis’s lineup.

While the current odds favor the Cardinals as -155 betting favorites, the projections suggest a tighter contest. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an engaging battle between a solid offense and an underwhelming pitching performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Keider Montero is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball bats like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Sonny Gray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the Detroit Tigers projected lineup today (.319 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .330 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Sonny Gray has relied on his four-seamer 5% less often this season (18.8%) than he did last season (23.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)
  Alec Burleson is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 15 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+14.28 Units / 27% ROI)
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Victor Scott II has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.30 Units / 49% ROI)