Picks and Betting Line for Mariners vs White Sox Monday, May 19, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox

On May 19, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will visit Guaranteed Rate Field to face the Chicago White Sox in the first game of their series. The Mariners are currently in solid form with a record of 26-19, while the White Sox are struggling at 14-33 this season. Despite this, oddsmakers have the White Sox as significant underdogs, with a moneyline of +175, reflecting a 35% implied win probability. This may not accurately capture the potential for an upset given the matchup.

The starting pitchers present a stark contrast. Davis Martin, projected to start for the White Sox, is ranked 273rd out of approximately 350 pitchers according to advanced metrics, indicating he is among the worst in MLB. He has a decent ERA of 3.65, but his peripherals suggest he has been somewhat lucky this season. Martin projects to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs on average, which could be problematic against a potent Mariners offense that ranks 10th overall in MLB.

On the other hand, Luis Castillo, starting for the Mariners, is significantly more reliable, ranked 89th among MLB pitchers. He also has an ERA of 3.65 but with a higher xFIP of 4.62, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Castillo projects to pitch longer, averaging 5.9 innings and allowing 2.6 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the Mariners in the game against a struggling White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in batting average and 30th in overall offensive production.

With both teams’ recent performances and the disparity in pitching matchups, the Mariners appear well-positioned to capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive yet potentially low-scoring affair.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decrease from last year’s 95.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  J.P. Crawford is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Davis Martin is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Joshua Palacios has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 23 games (+7.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+200/-265)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 32% ROI)