Review the Latest Player Stats for Cardinals vs Royals – Saturday, May 17, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium on May 17, 2025, in an Interleague matchup. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Royals sitting at 25-21 and the Cardinals at 25-20. The Royals are having an above-average season, while the Cardinals are enjoying a good campaign. This game marks the second in their series, and both teams are looking to build momentum after their last outing, where the Cardinals triumphed over the Royals 10-3.

Projected starters Noah Cameron and Miles Mikolas offer contrasting styles on the mound. Cameron, a left-hander, boasts a pristine 0.00 ERA this season, though his 5.89 xFIP suggests that he might be riding a wave of good fortune. In his last start, he went six innings without allowing an earned run, but he struggled with five walks. Meanwhile, Mikolas, a right-hander, has a 4.35 ERA and has shown vulnerability, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. His last outing was solid, allowing just one earned run over five innings, but he has a tendency to give up fly balls, which could be problematic against a Royals offense that struggles with power, ranking 30th in home runs.

The projections indicate that the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.40 runs, suggesting that they might find some success against Mikolas. However, their offense ranks 26th overall, which raises concerns about their ability to capitalize on this matchup. Conversely, the Cardinals’ offense is performing at a high level, ranking 7th in MLB, and could exploit any weaknesses in Cameron’s game. With the Royals’ bullpen holding steady at 15th, they may have an edge if the game remains close late. This contest promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams seek to assert their dominance in this series.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Miles Mikolas’s 91.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.7-mph decline from last year’s 93.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Noah Cameron is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 92.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals ranks them as the #28 squad in the league this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 46 games (+21.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)