Team Stats and Prediction for Rays vs Marlins Matchup 5/17/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Tampa Bay Rays at LoanDepot Park on May 17, 2025, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around. The Marlins, currently sitting at 17-26, are struggling this year, while the Rays are slightly better at 20-24, both teams well below expectations. This matchup is crucial, especially after the Marlins secured a 9-4 victory over the Rays just yesterday, which could serve as a morale booster.

On the mound, the Marlins will send out Sandy Alcantara, who has had a rough season with a 2-5 record and an alarming ERA of 8.10. However, advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.51 indicates he may improve. Alcantara is expected to pitch around 6.2 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average, although he has struggled with walks, projected to issue 1.7 today.

The Rays counter with Drew Rasmussen, who has been more effective this season, boasting a 3.38 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 30th among starting pitchers. Rasmussen’s projections suggest he will pitch about 5.4 innings and allow 2.0 earned runs, but he has also been fortunate this year, indicating a potential regression.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 17th in MLB, while the Rays sit at 23rd. The Marlins’ best hitter has been hot recently, with a .318 batting average and 4 home runs over the past week, suggesting they could capitalize on Rasmussen’s vulnerabilities. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting an average scoring expectation, while the Marlins enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +130, presenting an intriguing betting opportunity given their recent win.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Drew Rasmussen (47.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Sandy Alcantara will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Javier Sanoja has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 82.1-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)