Expert Picks and Betting Line for Rays vs Marlins – Friday May 16th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 16, 2025, both teams are looking to gain traction in their respective seasons. The Marlins currently sit at 16-26, while the Rays are slightly better at 20-23. Both squads are struggling, with the Marlins’ offense ranked 20th in MLB, and the Rays not far behind at 22nd. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are eager to establish momentum.

In their last outings, the Marlins managed a solid 3-1 victory against their opponents on May 14, while the Rays earned a convincing 8-3 win on May 10. The Marlins will look to build on their recent success with Max Meyer on the mound. Despite a 2-4 record this season, Meyer ranks as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, suggesting he is above average. He projects to pitch approximately 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs, which could give the Marlins a fighting chance.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Taj Bradley, who has a 3-2 record and has shown flashes of promise. Although his ERA is slightly above average at 4.24, he has been somewhat lucky this season, as indicated by his higher FIP of 4.84. Bradley’s high walk rate (10.0 BB%) could be a concern, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest walks drawn.

With the game total set at a modest 8.5 runs, the betting lines indicate a close contest, favoring the Rays at -125 with an implied team total of 4.40 runs. Meanwhile, the Marlins are positioned at +105 with an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. Given the projections and the recent performances, this matchup could be an intriguing one for bettors looking to capitalize on potential value.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Taj Bradley has relied on his curveball 5.1% more often this year (14.1%) than he did last season (9%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Max Meyer’s 2515-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 129-rpm jump from last year’s 2386-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bats such as Derek Hill with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Taj Bradley who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+7.30 Units / 183% ROI)