Mariners vs Athletics Picks and Odds – May 06, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Athletics

On May 6, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners at Sutter Health Park in a crucial American League West matchup. The Athletics are currently sitting at 20-16, showing signs of a strong season, while the Mariners trail closely with a record of 20-14. These two teams faced off just yesterday, with the Athletics edging out a 7-6 victory, further enhancing the stakes for today’s game.

The Athletics are projected to start Jeffrey Springs, who has had an up-and-down year, currently holding a 4-3 record with a 4.98 ERA. His recent performance has shown promise, as he pitched 6 innings with 0 earned runs in his last outing on May 1, 2025. However, Springs’ high flyball rate (42%) could be problematic against the Mariners, who boast a powerful offense ranked 4th in the league with 49 home runs this season.

On the opposing side, Seattle will hand the ball to Emerson Hancock, who has struggled significantly, posting a 6.62 ERA in 4 starts. Despite this, projections suggest he might perform better moving forward, but his low strikeout rate (18.8 K%) won’t serve him well against an Athletics lineup that ranks 5th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

The Athletics’ offense ranks 11th overall and shows solid power with a 6th rank in home runs, which could exploit Hancock’s weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ lineup, while powerful, has been inconsistent, and they’ll need to capitalize on any opportunities presented by Springs’ control issues.

With a Game Total set at 10.5 runs, expectations are high for today’s action. The Athletics currently sit at -120 on the moneyline, suggesting a close contest in which they might have the edge given their recent form and home-field advantage.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Emerson Hancock in the 7th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (-120)
  The Athletics outfield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so JJ Bleday stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Brent Rooker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (-120)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 28 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jacob Wilson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)