New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-115/-105)-110
As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the New York Mets on May 6, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested National League matchup. The Mets are currently riding high with a record of 23-13, showcasing a strong offense that ranks as the 7th best in MLB. In contrast, the Diamondbacks sit at 18-17, having an average season thus far.
In their last game, the Mets fell to the Diamondbacks, which sets the stage for a competitive rematch. Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for Arizona, despite a less-than-stellar 2-4 record and a 4.93 ERA this season. However, advanced projections indicate that Gallen has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.12 xFIP suggests he may be poised for improvement. He faces a Mets lineup that has been patient at the plate, ranking 5th in MLB for walks, which could exploit Gallen’s high walk rate of 10.8%.
On the other hand, David Peterson is expected to start for New York. Peterson boasts a solid 3.06 ERA and a 2-1 record, but projections hint that he may be due for a downturn, given his higher xERA of 4.45. While he has good control, the Diamondbacks’ offense, which ranks 5th in MLB, may challenge him more than anticipated.
Betting markets currently set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a close contest. With both teams projected to score around 4.50 runs, this game could be a high-scoring affair, especially with the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive metrics and the Mets’ recent struggles. As both teams aim to solidify their standings, expect a heated battle at Chase Field.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against David Peterson in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Brandon Nimmo has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)The best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Zac Gallen has recorded a 26.6% Strikeout% this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Arizona’s 90.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in Major League Baseball: #5 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 10 games at home (+2.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- New York Mets – Run Line -1.0 (+120)The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games (+6.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)