Player Prop Picks for White Sox vs Royals – 5/5/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Kansas City Royals

On May 5, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in the first game of their series. The Royals currently sit at 19-16, enjoying an above-average season, while the White Sox are struggling at 10-24, marking one of the worst starts in MLB. In their most recent outings, the Royals secured an 11-6 victory on May 4, demonstrating offensive prowess, while the White Sox edged out a 5-4 win, albeit in a less convincing manner.

The matchup features two pitchers with contrasting expectations. Kansas City’s Cole Ragans, ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a solid 1-1 record and projects to allow just 1.8 earned runs over 5.4 innings. His ability to strike out 7.0 batters on average bodes well against a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in offensive performance. Additionally, Ragans’ high-flyball tendency could work in his favor, as the White Sox have struggled to convert flyballs into home runs.

In contrast, Chicago’s Shane Smith, who has also posted a 1-1 record, shows signs of potential decline. Although his 2.23 ERA is impressive, his higher xFIP of 4.48 suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. Smith’s projections indicate he might struggle against a Royals offense that, despite ranking only 25th overall, has shown flashes of life, especially from their best hitter.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Royals favored at a moneyline of -225, this matchup presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on Kansas City’s favorable pitching and the White Sox’s offensive deficiencies.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  In his previous start, Shane Smith was on point and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Joshua Palacios are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cole Ragans.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  Cole Ragans is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Michael Massey is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-220)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+10.35 Units / 57% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)